Lucko's Question

Lucko asked me an interesting question about the ATo hand where I flopped the gutshot, bet a dollar and got smooth-called, and turned the straight.

He asked: The $1 bet is def interesting. What % of times do you think you get a call\fold\raise?

Hmm. Well if I assume his range is 88+,ATs+,AJo+ and that he'll only raise with AA, KK or AQ (which is overly simplified, but close enough, I think), then on the flop he can have:

AA (3 ways)
KK (6 ways)
QQ (3 ways)
JJ (3 ways)
TT (6 ways)
99 (6 ways)
88 (6 ways)
AK (12 ways)
AQ (9 ways)
AJ (9 ways)
ATs (2 ways)

So if my assumptions on him are correct, then I get raised 18 times, and called 47 times. So I think 28% of the time, I'm gonna end up losing a dollar, which is actually more than I was expecting. However, with his stack size being deep enough at this point, I think that the 72% of the time he does call and I hit the turn (about 10%-- making it about 7% of the time I bet a dollar) I get win a big pot, given his likely holdings. I need something like 13.5-1 implied odds (if I did the math right, I'm rushing throuhg this) in order to make the times he raises me or the times I miss make up for all the dollar's I've bet. Actually, since enough of the time he'll have re-draw potential (when he has a set) I might need considerable more implied odds... but there are already $13 in the pot, plus his 14th dollar, and I think unless he has 99 or 88, I can be able to squeeze another bet out of him to make up for this, especially if I take the line that I took (check w/ intent of CR-ing the turn, because if he bets, I usually already make up for it, and if he doesn't he's much more likely to call a decent sized bet on the river if he assumes that I missed a flush draw or just decides to make a fuck-you call.