What I'm Reading

Monday, November 06, 2006

Lucko's Question

Lucko asked me an interesting question about the ATo hand where I flopped the gutshot, bet a dollar and got smooth-called, and turned the straight.

He asked: The $1 bet is def interesting. What % of times do you think you get a call\fold\raise?

Hmm. Well if I assume his range is 88+,ATs+,AJo+ and that he'll only raise with AA, KK or AQ (which is overly simplified, but close enough, I think), then on the flop he can have:

AA (3 ways)
KK (6 ways)
QQ (3 ways)
JJ (3 ways)
TT (6 ways)
99 (6 ways)
88 (6 ways)
AK (12 ways)
AQ (9 ways)
AJ (9 ways)
ATs (2 ways)

So if my assumptions on him are correct, then I get raised 18 times, and called 47 times. So I think 28% of the time, I'm gonna end up losing a dollar, which is actually more than I was expecting. However, with his stack size being deep enough at this point, I think that the 72% of the time he does call and I hit the turn (about 10%-- making it about 7% of the time I bet a dollar) I get win a big pot, given his likely holdings. I need something like 13.5-1 implied odds (if I did the math right, I'm rushing throuhg this) in order to make the times he raises me or the times I miss make up for all the dollar's I've bet. Actually, since enough of the time he'll have re-draw potential (when he has a set) I might need considerable more implied odds... but there are already $13 in the pot, plus his 14th dollar, and I think unless he has 99 or 88, I can be able to squeeze another bet out of him to make up for this, especially if I take the line that I took (check w/ intent of CR-ing the turn, because if he bets, I usually already make up for it, and if he doesn't he's much more likely to call a decent sized bet on the river if he assumes that I missed a flush draw or just decides to make a fuck-you call.


lucko said...

Do you think the min-reraise is usually a little bit stronger range than what you gave him?

And what 18 hands do you have raising here?

NFulton said...

I actually think the min-raise might be a broader range than I gave him, but I'm not really sure by how much.

The 18 hands raising me here (IMO, at least) would be AA, KK, or AQ. Granted, other hands may be raising me here occasionally, but these three I know he's always gonna raise me in that spot.