Lucko in a recent post showed a series of hands he played at the end of a SNG. There was a hand where he jammed into a bunch of shorter stacks with 63o. He said he thought it was close, but +$EV. Stoner thinks that it was a bad move.
So I tried to figure it out. Take the following for granted, because a lot of it is probably wrong.
Here's the hand:
Seat 1: jbreuker (3,850)
Seat 2: lucko21 (4,950)
Seat 4: thomas a (920)
Seat 6: vengven (1,855)
Seat 8: NYpokerguy (1,925)
vengven posts the small blind of 200
NYpokerguy posts the big blind of 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to lucko21 [6d 3d]
lucko21 raises to 4,950, and is all in
thomas a folds
lucko21 wins the pot (1,000)
I typed everything into the ProPokerTools Tournalyzer calculator.
From the short stacks POV, lucko could be jamming any two. So if he calls with AA-22, AK-A2, KQ-K2, QJ-Q2, JT-J2, T9-T8, T7s-T3s, 98s, 97s, he maximizes his $EV, increasing his value from $81.40 if he folds to $90.40 if he calls.
If the SB knows the shortie is calling with this, he suffers the least (no matter what, he is always losing a little EV but this is the range he performs best at) calling (or overcalling, I suppose. Part of the reason this isn't exact is because going through overcalls would've taken forever) with AA-22, AK-A2, KQ.
If the BB knows the shortie and SB's ranges, he suffers the least with this range: AA-55, AK-A4.
Stack/blind posted/range/Post-hand value/Pre-hand value.
3850 0 $27.29 $26.30
4950 0 ** $30.03 $30.25
920 0 AA-22, AK-A2, KQ-K2, QJ-Q2, JT-J2, T9-T8, T7s-T3s, 98s, 97s $9.04 $8.14
1855 200 AA-22, AK-A2, KQ $16.42 $16.77
1925 400 AA-55, AK-A4 $17.22 $18.55
Okay, so if he knows this and is playing (close to, I suppose) optimally, lucko should reduce his range from ATC to 81% of the hands.
Stack Blind Hands Post-hand Value Pre-hand Value
3850 0 $27.34 $26.30
4950 0 81% $30.27 $30.25
920 0 AA-22, AK-A2, KQ-K2, QJ-Q2, JT-J2, T9-T8, T7s-T3s, 98s, 97s $8.78 $8.14
1855 200 AA-22, AK-A2, KQ $16.37 $16.77
1925 400 AA-55, AK-A4 $17.24 $18.55
This range of 81% of the hands does NOT include 63o, but it's really damn close: 22+, A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+, J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,73s+,62s+,52s+,42s+, A2o+,K2o+,Q2o+, J3o+,T4o+, 95o+,85o+, 75o+,65o,54o
So you can keep going with this. The shortstack can now call with T2s, 96s and 87s to gain a little value (about 20 cents worth).
The SB can't add anything profitably but the BB can add A3s and A2s, KQ and KJ-KTs.
Of course now lucko has to tighten up a bit. Once he tightens his range to 76% of the hands(22+,A2s+,K2s+, Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,83s+, 73s+,63s+,52s+,43s,A2o+,K2o+, Q2o+,J4o+, T6o+,96o+,85o+, 75o+,65o) he can start jamming profitably, although he performs better as his range tightens (although to what extent I'm not sure, because I'm tired and going to bed).
I hope I wake up in the morning, look over this and have it all make sense, because if not I'm gonna be pissed I spent so much goddamn time on it.
On a brief sidenote, I've been rollercoastering in the FTP games, in SNGs, HU SNGs and cash games, but played really well in the UB cash games today for a decent profit in a pretty short amount of time.