Almost forgot...

Don't use the Beta Version of Full Tilt.

Didn't quite make it

Didn't manage to play the 5.5K hands I wanted to this week. Part of this is because I actually had to go into work twice this week. I also found myself moderately (Friday) and inexplicably (Saturday) drunk this weekend.

All in all, I feel like I played pretty well this week. As I already mentioned, I got to work on my heads up game a bit while playing with Mag. I played another guy heads up on UB for about 300 hands. I managed to break him three times, but he bought in short every time. And since the match went on for so long, the big winner of the game was Ultimate Bet, not me. I had a chance earlier to finish him off when I turned 2 pair and jammed on him, but he called with his TP + flush draw and caught up, and went on a pretty sick run for a while until I managed to wear him down to a point where he was open-jamming 20BB on me.

Not much else happening. There have been some awesome threads going on at +1. It's nice to see that the poker sections there have started to pick up again. On the other side of the coin, however, there has been some atrocious discussion going on over at CP. I do my best to give solid, well-thought out advice while simultaneously kicking people in the teeth.

Interviewing at NEOUCOM in the morning. Not really nervous, but I hate waking up early. If all does not go well, I might have to start playing a hell of a lot more than five thousand hands a week...

...yes, I was joking.

My next post will be more interesting, I promise.

A few scattered thoughts

I'm trying to play ~5.5k hands this week. I've played about 3.3k so far I think. I figured out that in an hour I play about 137 hands (playing shorthanded), so if I were playing 40 hours a week it'd equal about five and a half thousand hands. Of course, since I multi-table, 40 hours a week is gonna be a lot more than that. But as of right now, this is my goal.

By the way, 5.5k hands is considerably more than any live player is gonna get. Even if a person plays for a week straight, and they have a fast dealer at a short-handed table and is getting about 40 hands an hour (yeah, right) they're playing 40*24*7 = about 6,700 hands. More realistically, I think 25 hands/hour * 60 hours = 1,500 hands per week. I'm double that already.

I played Mag heads up a few nights ago. It did not go well, but he gave me some solid advice to help my heads up game. Luckbox also won the $30 flip we did. Good times. Definitely worth the lessons.

I'm actually playing okay in SNGs lately. I've cashed in 9 of my last 10 SNGs, but I've had way too many thirds, not enough firsts.

I finally downloaded PAHud. I have to buy it soon. Very sweet program, and found a template to use for UBs mini-screen. If only it worked for the resizable FTP screens.

I'm very tired right now.

I've been watching High Stakes Poker. I can't imagine how a lot of these players (Farha, Elezra) can manage to play these games. Maybe they play limit games (and for Farha, apparently PLO) well, but they need to stay away from NLHE. The people who've played the best are the ones who aren't known for playing in the big game (with the obvious exceptions of Greenstein and Brunson). I used to think people like Mag were crazy for saying that if you took five of the players from the big game and five of the best online NLHE cash players, put them at a NLHE table and the internet players are going to crush, but my mind has changed drastically.

I think I'm going to sign up for Cardrunners. Maybe.

I wish I had this shirt.


Okay, more later.

Heads Up vs. Random Hand

Running bad, playing worse. Gotta re-grind out a bit before taking more shots at higher limits. Click on some of my adds to give me some insurance against going busto...

I was bored at work and went through PokerStove and calculated the equity of every hand heads up versus a random hand. Here are a few of the notable groups that these hands divide into.

Over 66.7% Equity
AA = 85.204%
KK = 82.396%
QQ= 79.925%
JJ = 77.469%
TT = 75.012%
99 = 72.057%
88 =69.163%
AKs = 67.045%

Between 60% and 66.7% Equity
77= 66.236%
66 = 63.285%
55= 60.325%
AQs = 66.209%
AJs = 65.393%
ATs = 64.602%
A9s= 62.781%
A8s= 61.944%
A7s = 60.984%
AKo = 65.320%
AQo = 64.432%
AJo = 63.563%
ATo = 62.722%
A9o =60.773%
KQs = 63.400%
Kjs =62.567%
KTs = 61.789%
KQo= 61.456%
KJo=60.569%
QJs= 60.259%



Between 55% and 60% Equity
44 = 57.023%
A6s = 59.906%
A5s = 59.923%
A4s = 59.034%
A3s = 58.220%
A2s = 57.379%
A8o=59.873%
A7o=58.841%
A6o=57.682%
A5o= 57.697%
A4o = 56.730%
A3o = 55.845%
K9s=59.988%
K8s= 58.312%
K7s=57.538%
K6s= 56.641%
K5s = 55.793%
KTo=59.739%
K9o=57.812%
K8o=56.020%
K7o=55.187%
QTs = 59.468%
Q9s = 57.664%
Q8s =56.018%
QJo = 58.135%
QTo = 57.291%
Q9o=55.360%
JTs = 57.528%
J9s=55.662%
JTo= 55.248%



Below 40%
84o=39.447%
83o=37.484%
82o=36.828%
72s=38.156%
74o=38.550%
73o=36.602%
72o=34.584%
63s=39.534%
62s=37.669%
65o=39.944%
64o=38.010%
63o=36.078%
62o=34.075%
53s=39.693%
52s=37.849%
54o=38.155%
53o=36.265%
52o=34.285%
43s=38.642%
42s=36.829%
43o=35.146%
42o=33.200%
32s=35.984%
32o=32.303%


Over 50%
22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+, Q5o+,J6s+,J8o+,T7s+,T9o,98s



Below 50%
J5s-J2s,T6s-T2s,97s-92s,32s,Q4o-Q2o,J7o-J2o,T8o-T2o,92o+,32o

Defending Your Raise

This is something I've had (and still have) tons of trouble with-- you raise it up before the flop and somebody comes over the top of you for a decent amount. Defend? Give up? Jam?

I feel like because my opening standards are relatively loose, this happens more than it does to a more solid player and I have been laying down too much.

Let's look at some numbers.

Say I raise UTG (assume 6 max for the ranges I'll give; full ring < watching paint dry). The game is .5/1 and I make it 3 to go. Now suppose the button reraises me the size of the pot. He is raising me another $7.5, and is risking $10.5 immediately to win $4.5 immediately.

So, for our button reraises, he has to win 4.5x for every 10.5 he risks, where x is how many more pots he has to win immediately (this, of course, is assuming that if he is called, he loses exactly what he raised. We'll go into more detail in a minute).

So 10.5/4.5 = 2.33. So the button needs to win only 2.33 pots preflop for every time he is called, or (1/2.33) 30% of the time.

What this means is that even if when you call you automatically win the pot, he is still profiting if you fold over 30% of the time.

Now let's make this example a little more realistic. Suppose that when he reraises and is called, he wins 50% of the time and you win the other 50% of the time. How often do you have to call preflop in order to prevent him from exploiting your tightness?

In order to find the breakeven point, set the function to 0 and use x to be the % that we call preflop

0 = -3(1-x) + 12(x/2) - 10.5(x/2)

-3(1-x) = when we fold preflop = we lose 3 dollars
+22.5(x/2) = half of the time we call, we win the pot, netting 12 dollars
-10.5(x/2) = half the time we call, we lose the pot, losing 10.5 dollars.

Solving for x, we get .8 or 80%. That means in a more realistic situation, we have to be called a very high percentage of our preflop raises. Of course, this is overly simplified because you have to take into account many factors (how your opponent plays, your hand, if the raise is from the button or the blinds, etc.) but these results are nonetheless pretty eye-opening.

The following range is a standard LAG opening-raise requirement from UTG in a six-max game (22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo). [by the way, I got this range from Chipp who in turn had based it off of something Andy Bloch had written a while back].

This is 19.2% of the hands. 80% of 19.2 is 15.36% of the hands, or 77+,A7s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo.

Of course, this can be skewed a bit in order to include hands that are easier to play PoF, 22+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+.

Still, I can't imagine KJo being something you can call a reraise preflop with. Even if you are only calling iwth 1/2 of the hands, your range [88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo] still includes a lot of hands that seem like the easiest mucks in the world. I think what accounts for this (aside from the ex-showdown value of the hands is that your opponents AREN'T raising so often in order to take advantage of your weakness in calling reraises. I suppose if they were, calling with QTs would be automatic.

Regardless though, I think that I am both raising preflop too often and not defending enough of these raises. Hopefully this work'll get me a little closer to playing PF more optimally.

If I have time/remember/can figure it out, I will in the future do similar examples involving defending against these raises but try to make them more realistic.

I Trap With Queen High

keepmlow is at seat 0 with $87.15.
themffulton is at seat 1 with $194.15.
jp9999 is at seat 2 with $51.70.
serbmaster is at seat 3 with $100.
KcKoether is at seat 4 with $98.50.
BeauNercozi is at seat 5 with $85.90.
The button is at seat 0.

themffulton posts the small blind of $.50.
jp9999 posts the big blind of $1.

keepmlow: -- --
themffulton: Qc 2s
jp9999: -- --
KcKoether: -- --
BeauNercozi: -- --

Pre-flop:

KcKoether folds. BeauNercozi folds. keepmlow folds.
themffulton calls. jp9999 checks.

Flop (board: Kc 8s 9d):

themffulton checks. jp9999 checks.

Turn (board: Kc 8s 9d 8h):

themffulton checks. jp9999 bets $2. themffulton
calls.

River (board: Kc 8s 9d 8h 3c):

themffulton checks. jp9999 bets $6. themffulton
calls.



Showdown:

jp9999 shows 6h Jh.
jp9999 has Jh Kc 8s 9d 8h: a pair of eights.
themffulton shows Qc 2s.
themffulton has Qc Kc 8s 9d 8h: a pair of eights, king/queen kickers.


Hand #37041585-102218 Summary:

$.90 is raked from a pot of $18.
themffulton wins $17.10 with a pair of eights.

A few hands prior, the guy (who was still new to the table at the time this hand took place) had bet two streets in a row with absolute air when I had enough of a hand to call him down.

So in this hand, I limp the SB and he checks. Normal looking so far. I check the flop intending to give it up, but he checks too. Given how he'd played the few hands in between the last one and this one, I assumed that he had missed it completely.

Turn pairs the board-- besides a Q, one of the best cards that could come. If he had nothing, he still has nothing. I check in order to induce a bluff from him and he obliges. I could've check-raised here pretty easily without having to worry about the river, but I got greedy. I wanted a river bet as well. Of course, I risk him sucking out, but I figured I'm gonna take the risk of a 6 outer in order to win another river bet. Not sure if that's the right play or not.

River comes a 3. Another pretty good card. If he caught up and hit a three, I think he probably checks behind on the river. So his bet means either 1) my read was terribly wrong or 2) my read was awesomely right.

It was and I won a nice little pot with a hand that only beats 30% of all random hands.

Percent
Hands beaten 31.52%
Hands tied 5.76%
Hands lost to 62.73%

SHIP IT!

More soon about defending against preflop reraises.